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The global offshore wind industry is set for a strong rebound in 2025, with capacity additions expected to reach 19 gigawatts (GW) and overall investments projected at $80 billion. This follows a slowdown in 2024 when new installations dropped to around 8 GW, marking a decrease of 2 GW from the previous year. The resurgence is mainly driven by a record number of lease auctions, with Mainland China leading the growth, accounting for 65% of the new capacity. With these additions, the total offshore wind capacity will surpass the previous peak set in 2021 by about 1 GW.
Despite this progress, uncertainties remain regarding lease agreements, which are long-term contracts between wind energy developers and landowners. In 2024, a record 55 GW of offshore wind capacity was offered in lease auctions globally, excluding Mainland China. However, not all of this capacity has been awarded yet, as offered capacity does not always convert into actual projects. The United States, for instance, received no bids for its 3-GW floating wind auction in Oregon, while the Gulf of Maine auction successfully awarded about 7 GW out of the 13 GW offered. The number of lease auctions is expected to decline in 2025, with an estimated 30-40 GW available. Although lower than 2024, this level is still significant and aligns with figures from 2021 and 2022.
Project delays had a notable impact on final investment decisions (FID) for offshore wind projects in 2024, causing a decline in project approvals. In the U.S., only a few projects, including Empire Wind 1, Sunrise Wind, and Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, reached FID. The same trend is expected in Europe and Asia in 2025, though there could be some improvement in the U.S. with projects like US Wind, Southcoast Wind, and New England Wind securing offtake agreements and necessary approvals. However, the signing of offtake contracts for some projects has been postponed until March 2025.
Despite the slow pace of approvals, 2024 saw some positive developments. Several offshore wind projects advanced, including Red Rock Power and ESB’s 1.1-GW Inch Cape project in the UK and Equinor’s 810-MW Empire Wind 1 in the U.S. Inch Cape reached its financial close status in January 2025 after securing 15-year contracts for difference (CFD) in both 2022 and 2024. These contracts provide revenue stability and boost investor confidence. Other projects that reached FID in 2024 include Iberdrola’s 315-MW Windanker in Germany, RWE and TotalEnergies’ 795-MW OranjeWind in the Netherlands, and Orsted’s 924-MW Sunrise Wind 1 in the U.S.
In Europe, the UK, Poland, and Germany are expected to lead a surge in FIDs in 2025, collectively reaching 9.5 GW. Poland, in particular, is expected to see multiple large wind projects move forward, including Polenergia and Equinor’s Baltyk II and III. This follows the recent FID for Orsted and PGE’s Baltica 2 project in late January 2025.
With increasing offshore wind capacity and strategic investments, the sector is positioning itself for long-term growth. While challenges remain, including lease uncertainties and project delays, the overall outlook for 2025 suggests strong progress in global offshore wind development.
