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The global offshore wind industry is set to rebound in 2025, with capacity additions expected to reach 19 gigawatts (GW) and sector-wide spending projected to hit $80 billion, according to Rystad Energy’s research. This recovery follows a slowdown in late 2024, when new installations dropped to around 8 GW, 2 GW lower than the previous year. A record number of lease auctions is driving the recovery, with Mainland China, the largest offshore wind market, accounting for 65% of the new capacity. This surge in capacity will push total additions past the 2021 peak by around 1 GW, exceeding the 7.7 GW added in 2024, 10.2 GW in 2023, and 9.3 GW in 2022.
While new capacity additions demonstrate progress, uncertainty lingers regarding lease agreements — the long-term contracts between landowners and wind-energy companies. A record 55 GW of offshore wind capacity was offered in lease auctions globally (excluding Mainland China) in 2024. However, not all this capacity has yet been awarded, as offered capacity does not always translate into awarded capacity. For instance, the US saw no bids for its 3-GW floating wind auction in Oregon last year, while the Gulf of Maine auction awarded roughly 7 GW of the approximately 13 GW offered. Despite 2024’s record offerings, lease auction openings are projected to decline in 2025, with an expected 30-40 GW available. While significantly lower than 2024, this projected offered capacity is still significant, aligned with levels seen in 2021 and 2022.
Global offshore wind is poised for a strong year in 2025, but certain factors may affect its growth trajectory. US federal policies are creating significant ripple effects worldwide, particularly in areas with a large portion of auctioned capacity. President Donald Trump’s January memorandum, which halts new leasing and approvals on the Outer Continental Shelf (OCS) due to environmental and safety concerns, may persist throughout his term, pausing new developments and causing continued uncertainty for ongoing projects, according to Petra Manuel, Senior Offshore Wind Analyst at Rystad Energy.
Project delays significantly impacted final investment decisions (FID) for new offshore wind projects in 2024, leading to a decline in project approvals. Notably, 2024 saw only a few US projects reach FID, including Empire Wind 1, Sunrise Wind and Costal Virginia Offshore Wind. We expect to see around the same level of FIDs this year as last in Europe and Asia, and some possible upside in the US with US Wind, Southcoast Wind and New England Wind projects obtaining offtake agreements and construction and operation (COP) approvals. The latter two just postponed signing offtake contracts until March this year.
Despite the slow pace of sanctioning in 2024, the year did have some bright spots. Developers advanced projects like Red Rock Power and ESB’s 1.1-GW Inch Cape in the UK and Equinor’s 810-MW Empire Wind 1 in the US. Inch Cape, which formally announced its financial close status in January 2025, secured 15-year contracts for difference (CFD) in both 2022 and 2024, providing revenue certainty and boosting investor confidence. Other wind farms reaching FID in 2024 include Iberdrola’s 315-MW Windanker in Germany, RWE and TotalEnergies’ 795-MW OranjeWind in the Netherlands, and Orsted’s 924-MW Sunrise Wind 1 in the US.
The UK, Poland and Germany are set to lead a surge in European FIDs in 2025, reaching 9.5 GW, with several projects in these countries on track for final approval. Poland in particular is expected to see multiple major wind farms reach FID, including Polenergia and Equinor’s Baltyk II and III, following the recent FID for Orsted and PGE’s Baltica 2 in late January 2025.
