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The United States is facing major challenges in developing its offshore wind sector as China continues to dominate the global market and expand its capacity well into 2030. While the US government focuses on reducing dependence on Chinese supply chains by increasing domestic oil and gas production, the offshore wind industry has been hit by a series of economic and policy setbacks. Rising inflation, the rollback of tax incentives, and stop-work orders on major projects have made the US market less attractive for investors.
According to research by Rystad Energy, new global offshore wind capacity is expected to reach 16 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2025, largely due to projects already in progress. Notably, about two-thirds of these projects are being developed in China. By 2030, China’s offshore wind projects are projected to account for nearly 45% of the world’s total installed capacity. This strong growth will make it difficult for the US to compete, even if it reverses some of its current policies.
The signs of decline in the US renewable energy sector are already visible. Investments in renewables have dropped 36% compared to last year, while European companies are increasing their investments and shifting capital away from the US market. Several large offshore wind projects in the US have also been halted or delayed. Stop-work orders were issued for Orsted’s Rhode Island project and Equinor’s New York project, though the latter recently reached an agreement allowing work to resume. In another case, a federal judge overturned an order against Orsted’s Revolution Wind project, but it remains uncertain if further legal challenges will follow.
To maintain investor confidence, companies like Orsted are being forced to reconsider their US operations and explore other regions for offshore wind development. Meanwhile, China’s offshore wind industry is moving ahead quickly. The China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) has announced a major expansion, including its first utility-scale project—the 1.5 GW Hainan CZ7—which is expected to be completed before 2030.
For European energy companies with limited US exposure, dependence on China and other Asian suppliers continues to grow. Despite earlier attempts to move manufacturing out of China, Western equipment makers are now returning due to its favorable business environment. Around 25% of the manufacturing sites producing key turbine components for European companies are still located in China, showing how difficult it will be for Western nations to build an alternative supply chain in the renewable energy sector.
