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In a recent update from Wood Mackenzie’s “Global wind power market outlook: Q3 2023” report, it has been forecasted that the grid-connected wind power sector is set to experience robust growth over the next decade, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.1%. This expansion is expected to result in an impressive cumulative installed capacity of 2.38 terawatts (TW) by the end of 2032.
Despite facing short-term challenges, including a net downgrade of 10.1 gigawatts (GW) in capacity from 2023 to 2025, the wind power market is poised for substantial development. Encouraging signs are emerging from Western markets, spanning North America, South America, and Europe, where national energy and climate plan (NECP) targets are being revised upward. Additionally, positive auction developments and reinforced repowering projections are contributing to this growth trajectory.
A notable driver for the global wind power market is the advancement of megaprojects in Africa. These initiatives are playing a pivotal role in bolstering the sector’s expansion.
In contrast, China’s “Single 30” regulation, coupled with global inflation and supply chain challenges, has led to setbacks in offshore wind projects, resulting in short-term growth slowdowns. Nevertheless, China’s new repowering policy is expected to provide a boost to the long-term global outlook, with annual installations projected to average 170 GW per year from 2026 to 2032.
To realize this growth, the total Capital Expenditure (CapEx) investment for wind power in the coming decade is estimated to reach a substantial US $2.5 trillion, with offshore wind accounting for $850 billion of this total.
Despite near-term obstacles, the long-term outlook for cumulative wind power capacity growth across all regions remains highly positive, according to Luke Lewandowski, Vice President of Global Renewables Research at Wood Mackenzie.