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Despite facing significant inflationary pressures and disruptions in supply chains, the global offshore wind sector has demonstrated notable resilience. According to recent data, the sector saw a 7% increase in new capacity additions in 2023 compared to the previous year. This momentum is set to continue, with forecasts predicting a 9% growth in new offshore wind capacity by the end of 2024, reaching over 11 gigawatts (GW).
Rystad Energy projects that, excluding mainland China, global offshore wind installations will surpass 520 GW by 2040. Europe is expected to be a major driver of this growth, particularly through the development of floating wind technologies. By 2040, Europe is anticipated to account for over 70% of global floating wind installations. Countries such as the UK, France, and Portugal are expected to lead the way, with floating wind capacity approaching 90 GW.
Asia will also play a critical role in the advancement of floating wind technology, capturing approximately 20% of global installations by 2040. Despite current supply chain constraints affecting the sector, there is a strong push to accelerate deployment, with floating wind capacity projected to reach up to 7 GW by 2030.
In contrast, the bottom-fixed segment of the offshore wind market is expected to see dominant growth in the UK, Germany, and the Netherlands. These countries, leveraging their proximity to the North Sea and their ambitious net-zero targets, are projected to account for a combined total of 150 GW of installed capacity by 2040. The US is also set to contribute, though its future growth is contingent on political factors, including potential policy changes under future administrations.
Between 2025 and 2030, significant growth is anticipated in the Americas, led by the US, and in Asia, excluding mainland China. Europe will continue its robust expansion, with projected installed capacity reaching 41 GW by 2025 and exceeding 112 GW by 2030. Latin America, particularly Brazil and Colombia, is expected to start contributing to offshore wind capacity during this period.
Looking ahead, Rystad Energy’s forecasts indicate a substantial ramp-up in floating wind installations from 2030 to 2035, with Europe adding 20 GW and Asia (excluding mainland China) adding up to 5 GW. The technology is expected to mature by 2040, with Europe reaching over 65 GW in floating wind capacity and Asia approaching 17 GW.
As the offshore wind sector continues to navigate supply chain challenges and inflationary pressures, it remains a key component of the global energy transition, offering significant potential for growth and investment in the coming decades.
