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Youwind Renewables, a leading provider of web-based solutions for optimizing early-stage offshore wind development, and climate modeling provider Climate Scale, have raised concerns about the substantial uncertainties introduced by the interplay between climate change and the natural variability of wind patterns. These uncertainties directly influence the economic outcomes of offshore wind projects.
As offshore wind power generation is projected to increase 15-fold over the next two decades, transforming it into a $1 trillion industry, it is imperative that developers consider the future impacts of climate change on wind resources. The weather-dependent nature of offshore wind energy presents challenges that must be addressed to ensure the long-term viability and profitability of these projects.
For instance, the wind drought that swept across much of Europe during the summer and early autumn of 2021 led to a more than 30% reduction in energy production. Models show that such events are likely to become more common.
A study conducted by Youwind in collaboration with Climate Scale, recently published in the IOP’s Science Journal of Physics, Conference Series, analyzed the impact of climate change on the economic indicators of an offshore wind park project. The study examined three different ‘socioeconomic pathways’ for key wind farm development areas: the Irish Sea (IS), the Princess Elizabeth Zone (PEZ), and Fortaleza, Brazil (BF). Results indicated that climate change effects led to a decline in the internal rate of return (IRR) for projects in the IS and PEZ sites from the 2040s onward, compared to IRR projections based on historical wind data. In contrast, results for BF were neutral to positive.
This study mirrors Climate Scale’s models predicting that mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere are likely to see the most significant negative impact from changes in atmospheric circulation due to climate change. This substantial variation in outcomes based on different climate models highlights the long-term uncertainty about how wind resources will change and shift.
Presented at the TORQUE 2024 wind energy conference in Florence, the study underscores the importance of incorporating long-term climate scale models into project planning and financial analysis. Given the 30+ year timeline of offshore wind projects, wind patterns may change, affecting project costs, energy production, and overall profitability. A comprehensive approach will enable developers to identify potential risks and make informed decisions that enhance the resilience and sustainability of their projects.
“Providing developers with the tools to account for the impact of climate change on offshore wind projects, as well as navigate the uncertainty of climate scenarios, is essential,” said Pieter Gebraad, Chief Development Engineer at Youwind. “Climate modeling offers critical insights into how global warming affects atmospheric circulation and wind patterns. By combining our expertise with climate change modeling experts, we can provide a more comprehensive understanding of potential risks and opportunities, ensuring that wind farms are resilient and economically viable in the face of changing wind patterns.”
Following this initial collaboration with Climate Scale, Youwind is actively developing solutions to better address the impacts of climate change on wind energy projects, ensuring a resilient and sustainable future for offshore wind development.
